FRANKFURT – By embarking on a new cycle of interest-rate cuts now, the European Central Bank appears to be relying too heavily on flawed forecasts and ignoring economic and geopolitical realities. Faced with the risk of either cutting interest rates prematurely or maintaining an overly restrictive monetary policy, the ECB has not chosen ...

ZURICH – Economic forecasting models have long been notoriously inaccurate in predicting inflation, and COVID-19 has further complicated the challenge. Those who heed current consensus forecasts of persistently low price growth could be in for a rude awakening. Current forecasts by many banks, central banks, and other institutions suggest ...

ZURICH – Over the last two decades, inflation targeting has become the predominant monetary-policy framework. It has been essentially (though not explicitly) adopted by major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. But the 2008 global economic crisis, from which the world has yet ...

The world is undergoing major transformation. Advancing technology is changing our everyday personal and business lives. And the emergence of the U.S. as a major energy provider is changing the global supply equation, shifting the balance of power toward oil consumers and away from suppliers. Both should be seen as positives. But, without ...