Regardless of whether the US has a recession this year, the current state of the economy is reason to celebrate. Recessions are notoriously difficult to predict. At the end of 2019, for example, many pundits were forecasting a recession simply because the boom had gone on for so long. But economic booms don’t die of old age, they get murdered ...

Focusing on individual prices can fuel arguments about the state of the economy, but not every price change is a sign of inflation. ‘Tis the season for headlines about the prices of some very specific items, such as a 16-pound turkey (down from last year) or a Christmas tree (up). None of these prices, however, is a good barometer of the ...

People pursuing their self-interest is good for the economy only when there are strong laws and social norms. As a kid, I was obsessed with the Salem witch trials. Not the witches themselves, although there is something to be said for women using magic to determine other people’s destinies. What captivated and terrified me was the ...

A deep-seated resentment about a “rigged” system has been simmering since long before the pandemic and continues to affect consumer attitudes. As it turns out, the big economic story of 2023 is not a recession, as many had predicted — it’s the disconnect between consumer sentiment and behavior. Higher than normal inflation over the past two ...

Friday's news about the 559,000 jobs added in May wasn't far off market expectations, but it is a far cry from the once-anticipated V-shaped recovery that would have meant millions of people a month pouring back into their old jobs. The economy has not bounced back to prepandemic employment levels, even as G.D.P. effectively has. Some ...

The United States economy is in uncharted waters. It has almost certainly slipped into a recession, one engineered by public health officials seeking to contain a global pandemic. A recession set off by a pandemic differs from the usual downturn, and calls for a different fiscal playbook. In a typical recession, the goal of fiscal stimulus is ...