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Charles Blahous: Fixing the federal budget requires changing how entitlement programs spend
Posted: April 11, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Though American politicians rarely acknowledge it, federal finances are relentlessly deteriorating almost entirely because of automatic growth in entitlement programs. We often lose sight of this reality whenever other events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, a tax cut or an appropriated spending binge, cause a onetime worsening of the ...

Charles Blahous: No Bailout for Broke Pensions
Posted: April 8, 2020 at 06:59 PM (Wednesday)

Democrats want to seize the coronavirus crisis to close a decades-old funding gap in multiemployer retirement funds. At a time when Americans need to pull together to contain the coronavirus as well as the economic devastation it has unleashed, too many politicians are exploiting the moment to advance unrelated agendas. One egregious example ...

Charles Blahous: Why Congress Must Fix Multiemployer Pensions
Posted: December 5, 2019 at 08:19 AM (Thursday)

Last month, Sens. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa) and Lamar Alexander (R., Tenn.) unveiled a comprehensive proposal to shore up multiemployer pension plans. Congress will have little choice but to consider such a proposal soon, to address a burgeoning crisis affecting workers in America’s multiemployer pension system. These workers face the loss ...

Charles Blahous: The Warren Plan to Paper Over the Costs of Medicare for All
Posted: November 1, 2019 at 06:37 PM (Friday)

Earlier today, presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren released her proposal to ostensibly pay for the costs of Medicare for All (M4A) without raising taxes on the middle class. As published, the plan would not actually finance the costs of M4A. First, I will provide a top-line summary of the financing proposal. The remainder of this ...

Charles Blahous: How the Urban Institute’s Estimates of 'Medicare for All’ Costs Stack Up Against Mine
Posted: October 24, 2019 at 07:27 AM (Thursday)

The UI analysis substantiates what we already know—that Medicare for All would add at least $32 trillion to federal budget costs over its first 10 years. Last week, a group of scholars from the Urban Institute (UI) released cost estimates for several alternative approaches to health care reform, including an updated estimate of the cost ...

Charles Blahous: The Fallacies Underlying the Warren Social Security Plan
Posted: October 7, 2019 at 07:45 AM (Monday)

Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts and candidate for president, recently released a Social Security plan that would exacerbate many of the program’s existing problems while also creating several new ones. The plan was announced in an article she posted on Medium, along with an analysis authored by Moody’s Analytics’ Mark ...

Charles Blahous: Don’t Expect a Revolution from NC Gerrymandering Ruling
Posted: September 13, 2019 at 07:38 AM (Friday)

Last week, a North Carolina state court panel threw out the current state legislative district map and ordered N.C’s General Assembly to enact a new one by Sept. 18. This article explains the substance of the panel’s decision and anticipates what it may mean for future district lines. The answer: Some change should be expected, but perhaps not ...

Charles Blahous: The Costs of Medicare for All Are Rising Already
Posted: August 26, 2019 at 12:42 PM (Monday)

After my study of the costs of Medicare for All (M4A) was published last July, a fierce debate erupted over whether M4A, while dramatically increasing the costs borne by federal taxpayers, might nevertheless reduce total U.S. health expenditures. Now, just one year after my findings, we have substantial additional evidence that M4A would ...

Charles Blahous: The Fundamental Divide Revealed in the Democrats’ Debates
Posted: August 2, 2019 at 07:57 AM (Friday)

One exchange from the first debate in Detroit this week between Democratic Party presidential candidates has already received substantial airplay. Its deeper significance warrants further exploration. The exchange was this one between former Congressman John Delaney and Senator Elizabeth Warren: Delaney: I think Democrats win when we run on ...

Charles Blahous: Eight Revealing Numbers from the Social Security 2100 Act
Posted: July 22, 2019 at 07:29 AM (Monday)

Advocates of Social Security expansion have declared their intention to move the “Social Security 2100 Act” through the House of Representatives before August recess. The bill, introduced by Rep. John Larson (D., Conn.), has more than 200 co-sponsors. Its sponsors deserve credit for putting forth a comprehensive Social Security plan that ...

Charles Blahous: The Dirty Dozen: 12 Tips for Testifying Before Congress
Posted: June 25, 2019 at 11:48 AM (Tuesday)

I have had the privilege of testifying before congressional committees multiple times, both in my service as a public trustee for Social Security and Medicare, and as an academic expert on a range of public-policy issues. This list of 12 tips is written in an effort to offer helpful guidance to others who are invited to testify. #1: Be ...

Charles Blahous: Four Lessons from the Latest Medicare Trustees’ Report
Posted: June 13, 2019 at 01:29 PM (Thursday)

My last article reviewed key lessons from the Social Security trustees’ annual report on that program’s financial status. This article presents four key lessons of the trustees’ companion report on the Medicare program. #1: Although Social Security’s actuarial shortfall is larger, the threat of insolvency is more immediate in the Medicare ...

Charles Blahous: Four Lessons from the Latest Social Security Trustees’ Report
Posted: June 11, 2019 at 03:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Social Security trustees issued their annual report on the program’s financial condition earlier this year, along with their companion report on Medicare. As in previous years, these reports contain sobering news that lawmakers and the public need to know. The trustees who authored these reports are Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, ...

Charles Blahous: No, My Study Didn’t Find Medicare for All Would Lower U.S. Health Costs by $2 Trillion
Posted: June 4, 2019 at 07:56 AM (Tuesday)

Last year I published a study with the Mercatus Center projecting that enacting Medicare for All (M4A) would add at least $32.6 trillion to federal budget costs over the first 10 years. After the study was published, some advocates misattributed a finding to it, specifically that M4A would lower national healthcare costs by $2 trillion over ...

Charles Blahous: Tim Ryan’s Good Idea to Shield Workers’ Pensions
Posted: May 30, 2019 at 08:57 AM (Thursday)

On May 20, Rep. Tim Ryan (D., Ohio) introduced the Prioritizing Our Workers Act of 2019, also introduced in the Senate by Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.V.). The technical explanation of the bill is that it would classify unfunded worker pension benefits as “administrative expenses” in a Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding. A layman’s explanation is ...

Charles Blahous: The Winners and Losers of 'Medicare for All’
Posted: May 22, 2019 at 07:19 AM (Wednesday)

Many Members of Congress and presidential candidates, including Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, have embraced “Medicare for All” (M4A), the catch-all phrase used to describe proposals that would replace our current blend of private and public health insurance with a single-payer system run by the federal ...

Charles Blahous: We’re running out of time. Social Security must be saved now.
Posted: April 26, 2019 at 03:54 PM (Friday)

This week, Social Security’s trustees issued a dire warning. In their 2019 annual report, they announced that future costs for the program will be 20 percent higher than projected revenue. As soon as next year, Social Security’s yearly expenses are expected to exceed its income — forcing the program to begin drawing down its trust funds. ...

Charles Blahous: Utah’s Novel Approach to Medicaid Expansion
Posted: February 27, 2019 at 09:46 PM (Wednesday)

The state of Utah recently enacted legislation to expand its Medicaid program, albeit by less than provided for in the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Specifically, the Utah law would bring childless adults with incomes below the federal poverty line onto Medicaid, rather than all those with incomes up to 138% of the poverty line as specified in ...

Charles Blahous: The Larson Bill: How Fast Should Social Security Costs Grow?
Posted: January 31, 2019 at 09:01 AM (Thursday)

On January 30, Congressman John Larson (D-CT1) and over 200 cosponsors reintroduced the Social Security 2100 Act, a bill to markedly increase both future Social Security benefits and costs. The proposal seeks to do nothing less than to reset the Social Security policy discussion, in a manner similar to progressives’ ongoing quest for “Medicare ...

Charles Blahous: Increased Workforce Participation Alone Won’t Fix Social Security Finances
Posted: January 15, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Tuesday)

Last month, Morgan Stanley published a research report projecting that US labor force growth will exceed Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections starting in the 2020s, and also asserting that this faster growth “should” delay Social Security’s insolvency, “perhaps by decades.” Specifically, the report stated that “a faster increase in ...

Charles Blahous: The One Indispensable Multiemployer Pension Reform
Posted: December 20, 2018 at 11:48 AM (Thursday)

Multiemployer pensions are in crisis. Lawmakers established a joint select congressional committee in February 2018 to address the problem, but it was unable to forge an agreement by its November 30 deadline. Recent reports suggest no solution will be legislated this year, and that pension sponsors will push aggressively for an expensive ...

Charles Blahous: How the ACA Is Really Performing
Posted: April 6, 2016 at 05:29 PM (Wednesday)

In March of this year the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released a presentation on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) six years in. The document portrays the ACA in a very favorable light, as one would expect for one of the Obama administration's signature pieces of legislation. A fuller and more objective understanding of the ...

Charles Blahous: Solving Uncle Sam's Overspending Problem
Posted: March 7, 2016 at 04:24 PM (Monday)

At a time when the presidential campaigns seem to be about everything other than the federal budget, the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) serve as a stark reminder that Americans will suffer grave economic consequences if the federal government does not repair its broken fiscal practices. It is often rightly noted ...

Charles Blahous: Obamacare Will Drive Health Care Costs Up
Posted: February 2, 2016 at 12:01 AM (Tuesday)

Today the Mercatus Center unveiled a study by Bradley Herring (Johns Hopkins University) and Erin Trish (University of Southern California) finding that the much-discussed health spending slowdown that continued in 2010-13 "can likely be explained by longstanding patterns" over more than two decades, rather than suggesting a recent ...

Charles Blahous: What the New York Times Isn't Telling You About Social Security
Posted: January 18, 2016 at 12:00 PM (Monday)

The New York Times recently published an editorial highlighting partisan differences over Social Security, advocating that current-law benefit growth be increased, and implicitly rejecting bipartisan calls to include some cost containment in legislated financing reforms. The Times, like everyone else, is within its rights to present its views ...

Charles Blahous: Five Lessons of the Cadillac Plan Tax Failure
Posted: December 22, 2015 at 11:45 AM (Tuesday)

The omnibus spending bill recently passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama delays the onset of the Affordable Care Act (ACA)'s so-called "Cadillac plan tax" for two years. The new law also weakens the effect of the tax (assuming it's ever collected) by making it deductible, as noted by my Mercatus Center colleague Brian Blase. ...

Charles Blahous: Don't Force Taxpayers to Bail Out Health Insurance Companies
Posted: December 7, 2015 at 12:06 AM (Monday)

Both the House and Senate versions of the budget reconciliation bill moving through Congress would repeal several key provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This piece focuses on the ACA's so-called "risk corridors," which the Senate majority also attempted to repeal though failing on a point of order. The reconciliation process ...

Charles Blahous: Six Mistakes Paul Krugman Makes About Medicare's Finances
Posted: August 30, 2015 at 09:25 PM (Sunday)

My usual custom when writing about Medicare and Social Security finances is to simply present the relevant data instead of discussing others' commentaries about the programs. After this year's Medicare trustees' report was released, however, a subsequent Paul Krugman column prompted a number of questions from his readers, suggesting it would ...

Charles Blahous: A Warning from the Medicare Trustees
Posted: July 30, 2015 at 12:40 PM (Thursday)

My most recent article for e21 summarized the 2015 Social Security trustees' report released last week. This companion piece does the same for the Medicare report. These are the last annual reports in which I participated as a public trustee based on my term that ended last autumn. The Medicare report shows that the program is on an ...

Charles Blahous: Time is Running Out to Fix Social Security
Posted: July 28, 2015 at 12:30 AM (Tuesday)

Last week saw the publication of the annual Social Security and Medicare trustees' reports, along with an accompanying summary. The occasion was bittersweet for me, these being the last such reports in which I participated as a public trustee on the basis of my term ending last autumn. It has been a high honor to serve, largely because of ...

Charles Blahous: Repealing Obamacare Would Lower Federal Deficits
Posted: June 21, 2015 at 02:04 PM (Sunday)

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has just released a report on the budgetary and economic effects of repealing the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Press reports reflect what CBO has reported pursuant to its scoring instructions – specifically, that relative to its scorekeeping baseline, repeal of the ACA would worsen the federal deficit ...

Charles Blahous: The Social Security Trustees' Projection Process: Imperfect but Indispensable (Part 2)
Posted: June 1, 2015 at 10:59 AM (Monday)

My last piece reviewed several recent criticisms of the Social Security trustees' projection history by Konstantin Kashin, Gary King and Samir Soneji. This piece reviews other criticisms by the same authors, this time focusing on process and presentation. As I indicated in my last piece, their factual observations regarding the projections ...

Charles Blahous: The Social Security Trustees' Respectable Projection Record (Part 1)
Posted: June 1, 2015 at 12:38 AM (Monday)

For the last four years I have had the honor of serving as one of Social Security's two public trustees (along with former CBO Director Robert D. Reischauer), co-authoring the annual trustees' reports. These reports are required under the Social Security Act and serve as the primary resource on Social Security's current and projected ...

Charles Blahous: CBO Says ACA Will Insure Fewer People Than Predicted
Posted: March 16, 2015 at 12:01 AM (Monday)

The Congressional Budget Office's new report shows updated cost projections for the insurance coverage expansion in the Affordable Care Act. With the debate over the ACA remaining so intensely polarized, advocates moved aggressively to spin this routine update as reflecting favorably on the law. A front-page article in the Washington Post ...

Charles Blahous: Mindless Yes, Austerity No. The Real Budget Problem
Posted: February 19, 2015 at 12:01 AM (Thursday)

When his budget proposals were recently released, President Obama stated, "I want to work with Congress to replace mindless austerity with smart investments that strengthen America." That quotation neatly summarizes how the White House is framing the basic trade-off faced in federal budgeting: between "austerity" (i.e., severe cuts in spending ...

Charles Blahous: Losing Employer-Provided Coverage, Another ACA Prediction Comes True
Posted: October 14, 2014 at 08:00 AM (Tuesday)

This past week provided an important example of the anticipated effects of the Affordable Care Act coming to pass. Walmart has announced that it will no longer offer health insurance for 26,000 part-time workers, prompting a piece at Vox recognizing that this termination of coverage occurred because "Obamacare changes the calculus on ...

Keith Hall and Charles Blahous: Jobs are the best way to fight poverty
Posted: April 30, 2014 at 11:00 AM (Wednesday)

Much of Washington’s ongoing economic policy debate focuses on reducing poverty, with many arguing to raise the minimum wage and expand government programs. But this focus ignores two simple truths.

First, poverty arises from sagging employment, our nation’s greatest economic challenge today and for the next several years. Most of those aged ...

Charles Blahous: Why Slower Healthcare Cost Inflation Isn't Fixing Medicare Finances
Posted: January 14, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Followers of the national healthcare policy debate may have noticed an interesting recent turn. After the Affordable Care Act (ACA)’s troubled rollout, the law’s supporters shifted to a new line to promote it: specifically, crediting the ACA with slowing the growth of national healthcare costs.This line is being pushed aggressively by the ...

Charles Blahous: No Grounds for Claim that Obamacare Lowers Healthcare Costs
Posted: November 25, 2013 at 08:00 AM (Monday)

Public support for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has plummeted now that the oft-repeated claim that “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it” is widely understood to be untrue. Despite previous assurances, millions of Americans are now grappling with ACA-triggered cancellations of their health insurance policies.Faced with public ...

Charles Blahous: Why We Have Federal Deficits
Posted: November 14, 2013 at 10:00 PM (Thursday)

The federal deficit is a huge public policy problem that must be understood, confronted, and solved. Federal deficits run in these last five years dwarf any precedent in U.S. post-world-war history. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)’s latest projections warn that without legislative corrections, deficits will rise to untenable levels ...

Charles Blahous: Obamacare's Fiscal Nightmare
Posted: February 7, 2013 at 08:00 AM (Thursday)

If the law isn't scaled back by 2014, we're ruined. Throughout 2009 and early 2010, supporters of the then-pending Affordable Care Act (ACA) argued that health-care reform was necessary to repair the federal government’s untenable fiscal outlook. More than any other factor, it was said, health-care cost inflation was the driving force ...

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