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Jeanna Smialek: North Carolina’s Furniture Hub Is Booming. What Comes Next?
Posted: November 27, 2021 at 03:38 PM (Saturday)

HICKORY, N.C. – The furniture capital of the state is ground zero for inflation, labor shortages, hot demand and limited supply. It’s debating how to cope. Six months into the coronavirus pandemic, as millions of workers lost their jobs and companies fretted about their economic future, something unexpected happened at Hancock & Moore, a ...


Jeffrey Frankel: Not That Seventies Inflation
Posted: November 26, 2021 at 08:35 AM (Friday)

CAMBRIDGE – In contrast to the stagflationary 1970s, the US recovery since the pandemic-induced recession has been strong, whether judged by GDP or labor-market indicators. Today's economic conditions therefore recall the late 1960s, another time of rapid growth and moderately rising inflation. Are the United States and other advanced ...


Peter Wallison: The Housing Gang Is Getting Back Together for Another Bust
Posted: November 25, 2021 at 04:31 PM (Thursday)

Fan and Fred will buy mortgages up to $1 million, repeating the mistakes that led to the 2008 crash. When the Supreme Court ruled last year that President Trump’s director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency could be removed without cause, many of us who follow housing policy knew what was coming. The next day, the Biden administration ...


Michael Spence: Lessons from Digital India
Posted: November 25, 2021 at 09:36 AM (Thursday)

MILAN – Over the past five years, India's mobile-internet and digital-services ecosystem has grown rapidly, owing to the pioneering efforts of large private-sector players. Although this industry-led growth is somewhat unusual, it offers a model that could benefit other developing countries. Over the past five years, India has experienced ...


Veronique de Rugy: This Thanksgiving, I'm Grateful for America's Generosity and Unprecedented Charitable Giving
Posted: November 25, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

The unique civic and economic role of voluntarism and charity has been a core part of American culture for centuries. Thanksgiving is a time for reflecting on all those things for which we are grateful. It seems particularly important now at the end of the second year featuring a pandemic and unprecedented restrictions. This past year also ...


Kenneth Rogoff: Biden's Wise Fed Choice
Posted: November 25, 2021 at 06:21 AM (Thursday)

CAMBRIDGE – To reappoint US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, President Joe Biden had to resist strong pressure from the left wing of his party for a shake-up. By choosing continuity, Biden accomplished several things at once. Give US President Joe Biden, a Democrat, credit for reappointing Jerome Powell, a Republican, to a second ...


Mark Perry: Giving thanks for the magic of the marketplace, the invisible hand of strangers, and no turkey czars
Posted: November 24, 2021 at 06:10 PM (Wednesday)

This Thanksgiving post has been an annual tradition at CD and I feature a slightly revised version again this year! Like in previous years, most of you probably didn't call your local supermarket ahead of time and order a Thanksgiving turkey this year. Why not? Because you automatically assumed that a turkey would be there when you showed up, ...


Jed Graham: Inflation Rate Is Sizzling, And The U.S. Economy And Stock Market Will Pay The Price
Posted: November 24, 2021 at 04:02 PM (Wednesday)

Inflationary pressures, already at a 30-year peak for the U.S. economy, are building to a crescendo. Supply-chain backups, high energy prices and surging rents could push the inflation rate to levels last seen in 1982. But the biggest risk to the outlook for the U.S. economy and stock market comes from the labor force shortages that are ...


Melvyn Krauss: The New Franco-Italian Alliance in Europe
Posted: November 24, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Wednesday)

STANFORD – Behind a new bilateral cooperation agreement between France and Italy is a burgeoning political alliance that could reshape the European Union and its global role. With German Chancellor Angela Merkel departing, all eyes are now on Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and French President Emmanuel Macron. Italian Prime Minister ...


Steve Rattner: Americans Are Feeling the Price Pinch
Posted: November 24, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Wednesday)

On MSNBC's Morning Joe today, Steven Rattner charted how inflation has made its way to the Thanksgiving dinner table, adding to the fears that Americans have about rising prices. As Americans sit down for Thanksgiving dinner on Thursday, inflation will be in the air – and on the table and pretty much everywhere else. Last year, as the ...


Allison Schrager: 10-Year Breakeven Rate Reaches All-Time High, Bond Market Takes Notice
Posted: November 24, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Inflation doves often argue we needn't worry about inflation until the bond market starts sounding alarms. While it is certainly not on fire yet, the bond market does seem to be getting concerned. The 10-year breakeven rate, the difference between 10-year nominal and real bonds, reached an all-time high of 2.76% this month. Breakevens ...


Arthur Brooks: How to Be Thankful When You Don’t Feel Thankful
Posted: November 24, 2021 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday)

Even if you think you have little to celebrate this year, you can—and should—practice gratitude. Thanksgiving was first proclaimed as a national celebration on October 3, 1789, by President George Washington. He declared "a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of ...


Mervyn King: The King Canute Theory of Inflation
Posted: November 24, 2021 at 12:30 AM (Wednesday)

A satisfactory theory of inflation cannot take the form, "Inflation will remain low just because we say it will." Central banks have been caught out by the sudden upturn in inflation. In the United States, CPI inflation is now 6.2%. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, has risen to its highest level in 30 years. ...


Ken Fisher: Don't Fight a Market That Is Right Much More Often Than It's Wrong
Posted: November 24, 2021 at 12:05 AM (Wednesday)

Two years on from the pandemic's dawn, and pundits remain blind to its biggest lesson: Don't fight the market. It is right much, much more often than all those who keep arguing it is wrong. That crowd has been wrong at virtually every turn over these 20 months, since stocks bottomed in the short, painful, lockdown-induced bear market. A big ...


Betsy McCaughey: 'Social and emotional learning' is often cover for progressive indoctrination
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 07:32 PM (Tuesday)

Social and emotional learning is the latest trend in your child's classroom. SEL sounds beneficial, but that's a disguise. In truth, it often indoctrinates kids with extremist ideas many parents don't condone. Monday, the Hartford Courant reported that West Hartford, Conn., elementary-school parents are in an uproar. They're complaining ...


Review & Outlook: Strategic Political Oil Reserve
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 06:36 PM (Tuesday)

Biden taps the U.S. emergency supply but prices still rise. Crude prices rose Tuesday after the Biden Administration announced that the U.S. and other countries would tap their petroleum reserves. Sorry, Mr. President. Markets know that this political gesture won’t fix the supply shortage and could make ...


Larry Kudlow: Biden's Plan To Tap Our Petroleum Reserve Is 'Spitting in the Wind'
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 05:00 PM (Tuesday)

President Biden spoke today, selling his new idea of putting on the market 50 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. That will cover about three days’ worth of oil consumption. Plus, some kind of international consortium of countries is making vague promises and so far producing ...


Steven Malanga: Undermining Pension Reform
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 04:07 PM (Tuesday)

The Biden administration tries to deny California transit aid because the state reduced public-worker retirement benefits eight years ago. The Biden administration is trying to prohibit California from receiving billions of dollars in new federal aid because, the administration claims, the state's 2013 Public Employee Pension Reform Act ...


Paul Tucker: The Fed appointments process should be overhauled
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 03:02 PM (Tuesday)

Giving the head of the US central bank a single eight-year term would avoid unnecessary uncertainty. The seemingly interminable toing and froing around the reappointment of the Federal Reserve chair — the will he, won’t he of whether President Joe Biden would bend to progressives, stick to the centre, listen to Wall Street, main street or ...


Ken Roberts: As Biden Opens Strategic Oil Reserves, 10 Things To Know
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 01:35 PM (Tuesday)

While the United States is far less dependent on foreign energy than at any time in decades, President Biden authorized the release of 50 million barrels of oil from the nation's strategic reserves. It is the fourth such emergency release since the strategic reserves were created in 1975, shortly after the Arab Oil Embargo led to shortages and ...


Paul Krugman: How Softies Seized the Fed
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 12:50 PM (Tuesday)

Who should lead the Federal Reserve? President Biden faced a difficult choice. Should he reappoint Jay Powell, a monetary dove who believes that the current inflation spike is probably temporary but might revise his views in the light of evidence? Or should he nominate Lael Brainard, a monetary dove who believes that the current inflation spike ...


Raghuram Rajan: Monetary and Inflationary Traps
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 10:17 AM (Tuesday)

CHICAGO – Having adopted a more flexible policy framework in response to the low-inflation conditions that preceded the COVID-19 crisis, the US Federal Reserve now finds itself confronting an entirely different economic regime. The balance of forces is thus weighing heavily against decisive action to control today's price increases. ...


Zachary Karabell: The Inflation Scare Isn't Anything to Freak Out About
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

For the first time in decades, we are in the midst of a bona-fide inflation scare. Recent numbers came in at 6.2%, the highest since 1990. With government spending in the trillions and economic activity surging as the pandemic wanes, much of the world is beset by high demand for goods that have created massive supply-chain bottlenecks, with ...


Justin Wolfers: More Women Than Men Are Going to College. That May Change the Economy.
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 05:00 AM (Tuesday)

The rising gender gap in college education — currently three women for every two men — might turn out to be one of the most transformative trends of our time. Walk across any college campus these days, and you will notice a striking gender imbalance: There are roughly three women students for every two men, according to data from the ...


Peter Morici: Failure to raise the debt ceiling needn't cause a government collapse
Posted: November 23, 2021 at 04:34 AM (Tuesday)

It's time to cut some programs and get our fiscal house in order. Americans have their noses to the window of another crisis — the periodic Congressional drama about the federal debt ceiling. If the ceiling is not raised, we are warned the federal government will default. But the store beyond the window is an illusion — the horrors of a ...


Paul Krugman: Spending as if the Future Matters
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 07:00 PM (Monday)

For centuries, America has invested taxpayer money in its future. Public funds built physical infrastructure, from the Erie Canal to the interstate highway system. We invested in human capital, too: Universal education came to the United States early, and America basically invented modern public secondary education. This public spending laid ...


Review & Outlook: Biden Signs Up for Powell’s Inflation
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 06:53 PM (Monday)

Republicans are under no obligation to endorse his Fed nominees. President Biden’s nominations Monday for the leadership at the Federal Reserve are all too much in character for this Administration. By keeping Jerome Powell in the chairmanship, while elevating progressive favorite Lael Brainard to vice chair, Mr. Biden may think he’s ...


Larry Kudlow: What Biden Failed To Say About the Reappointment of Jay Powell To Chair the Federal Reserve
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 06:00 PM (Monday)

The big news of the day is President Biden’s announcement of the reappointment of Jay Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve and the promotion of Lael Brainard to vice chairman from governor. “Jay,” the President basically said, “you're my guy because in our conversations you have promised to maximize employment and to make climate change a ...


Greg Ip: Jerome Powell Will Face a Very Different Economy in a Second Term
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 05:34 PM (Monday)

If inflation stays high, the Fed chairman must pivot from dove to hawk, at risk of recession and political blowback. Over his first term in office, Jerome Powell became arguably the most dovish chairman in the Federal Reserve’s modern history, giving priority to full employment in an era in which inflation seemed extinct. In his second term, ...


Michael Strain: Powell Needs to Cool the Economy Now to Avoid Recession Later
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 04:16 PM (Monday)

It's official: President Biden will seek to keep Jerome Powell at the helm of the Federal Reserve for another four-year term. Mr. Powell has his work cut out for him. With inflation rising to alarming levels, the Fed should be making moves to cool the economy. But under its dual mandate the agency is also obligated to ensure maximum ...


Jeanna Smialek: Biden Will Keep Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 10:32 AM (Monday)

President Biden will renominate Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, to another four-year term – ensuring policy continuity at a moment of rapid inflation and vast economic uncertainty but potentially angering progressive Democrats who had been agitating for a change in leadership. The much-awaited decision was a return to tradition ...


Adam Millsap: This Thanksgiving, Give Thanks For Economic Freedom
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 10:08 AM (Monday)

Thanksgiving is a time to gather with family and friends, eat delicious food, and watch football. It is also a time to reflect and give thanks for the many things that make our lives better. One of those things is economic freedom, and while its popularity is waning among younger generations, the empirical evidence is clear: More economic ...


Stephen Roach: The Fed Must Think Creatively Again
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 09:07 AM (Monday)

NEW HAVEN – Supposedly transitory one-off price adjustments in the United States have become pervasive, and a major inflation shock is now at hand. But despite the flashing warning signs, the Federal Reserve remains wedded to a monetary-policy strategy born of the low-inflation past. The transitory inflation debate in the United States is ...


Steve Rattner: Why Won’t Congress Pay to Build Back Better?
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 09:07 AM (Monday)

On MSNBC's Morning Joe today, Steven Rattner charted the budgetary impacts of the House-passed Build Back Better Act, a bill filled with worthy programs and policies but lacking in much-needed fiscal discipline. There's much to like in the House-passed Build Back Better plan: the child tax credit, universal pre-K, paid family leave, ...


Tim Worstall: Infrastructure via a $5,000 train ticket
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 06:00 AM (Monday)

The Democratic Party's attempt to justify blowing more than a trillion dollars on infrastructure is becoming more desperate. For example, we're told that building a light rail line in Minneapolis allowed some folks to get to their doctor appointments on time . This is undoubtedly of value: People should go to the doctor and arrive on ...


Ruchir Sharma: There is no easy escape from the global debt trap
Posted: November 22, 2021 at 05:00 AM (Monday)

No matter what happens to near-term inflation and growth, the world is too indebted for rates to rise much higher.

One of the big mysteries in the global economy is why, though inflation is making a strong comeback, long-term interest rates have barely budged in recent months.So far analysts have explained this odd market behaviour as a ...


Andrew Wheeler: Another Way Biden Pushes Gasoline Prices Up
Posted: November 21, 2021 at 05:15 PM (Sunday)

Inaction on the Renewable Fuels Standard means crippling penalties or insolvency for some small refineries. Gasoline prices are the highest they have been in seven years and inflation is at a 30-year high, a double hit to American families. The Biden administration has aggravated the situation with new regulatory requirements on oil and ...


Megan McArdle: Dismissing inflation while cutting taxes for the wealthy is not a winning strategy for Democrats
Posted: November 21, 2021 at 11:49 AM (Sunday)

Social media controversies aren't by themselves important, but they can be revealing. It didn't particularly matter when tech writer Sarah Jeong tweeted that "all the stuff you see about inflation in the news is driven by rich people flipping their s--- because their parasitic assets aren't doing as well as they'd like and they're scared ...


Niall Ferguson: Employers Are Hiring. Why Are So Many Workers Holding Back?
Posted: November 21, 2021 at 08:00 AM (Sunday)

The U.S. labor market is caught between a pandemic that isn’t quite over and an inflation surge that’s gathering steam. The pandemic is over. The pandemic is not over.The transition from the pandemic to the endemic phase of Covid-19 is rife with uncertainty and confusion. This is why the world economy, and particularly the U.S. labor market, ...


Julian Lee: When Energy Pipelines Are Political, Everyone Suffers
Posted: November 21, 2021 at 01:00 AM (Sunday)

Europe is becoming ever more hostage to the politicization of its pipelines. That doesn’t bode well for a looming winter energy crisis. The placement of energy pipelines has always been shaped by political considerations, often at the expense of commercial ones. But the operation of existing lines is increasingly becoming politicized, too. ...


Alexander William Salter: Three Common Myths About Money and Inflation
Posted: November 20, 2021 at 03:39 PM (Saturday)

Inflation is one of the most studied phenomena in economics. We have a pretty good idea of where it comes from and how it works. Unfortunately, a large knowledge gap remains between economists and the "man on the street." There are several persistent myths that just won't die. Let's see if we can put a few of them to rest. 1. Increasing the ...


Paul Krugman: Inflation Headlines Don't Tell the Whole Story
Posted: November 19, 2021 at 12:00 PM (Friday)

Early this year some prominent economists warned that President Biden's American Rescue Plan – the bill that sent out those $1,400 checks – might be inflationary. People like Larry Summers, who was Barack Obama's top economist, and Olivier Blanchard, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, aren't unthinking deficit hawks. ...


Allison Schrager: A False Choice
Posted: November 19, 2021 at 11:46 AM (Friday)

Biden’s top labor economist suggests a trade-off between inflation and employment.
Count President Biden's top labor economist, Janelle Jones, as among the few who thinks that the Federal Reserve should keep its foot on the gas. At 6.2 percent, inflation is up to its highest rate in decades. Yet the Fed has not only set rates to near zero but ...


Douglas Holtz-Eakin: Build Back Better is poor policy built on a shaky fiscal foundation
Posted: November 19, 2021 at 10:16 AM (Friday)

With the House of Representatives voting for passage, there is finally a single, concrete piece of legislation that is the Build Back Better Act (BBBA) – at least until the Senate gets in on the act. And with the publication of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cost estimate or "score," there is a lot more clarity about some key ...


Tyler Cowen: Milton Friedman Is More Relevant Than Ever
Posted: November 19, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The ideas of the Nobel laureate, who died 15 years ago this week, remain influential not only in economics but also in education and public policy. Economists have gotten a lot wrong over the course of this pandemic, and long before that, but there is one whose ideas have never looked better: Milton Friedman, the Nobel laureate who died in ...


James Galbraith: Whipping Up America's Inflation Bogeyman
Posted: November 19, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

AUSTIN – Recent price increases in the US, and demands for a forceful response by the Federal Reserve, have brought back memories of the 1970s and all of the economic and political disasters of those years. To avoid repeating past mistakes, policymakers must recognize that today's inflation is not a macroeconomic issue. The headline chosen ...


Veronique de Rugy: Democrats' 'Build Back Better' Bill Is a Federal Power Grab. Americans Will Pay the Price.
Posted: November 19, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The legislation will have a negative impact on the labor supply and send high prices soaring even higher. President Joe Biden has united the American people–in disapproving of his performance, with 70 percent of Americans disliking the direction the economy is going and over 6 in 10 blaming him for it. The impact of inflation on ...


Peter Morici: Powell and Biden are rolling the dice on inflation and growth
Posted: November 19, 2021 at 06:00 AM (Friday)

Wasting capital seems to be a preoccupation in Washington these days. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and President Joe Biden are rolling the dice on runaway inflation and slow growth. Global supply-chain disruptions and cost pressures on businesses are likely to persist into 2023 but by merely phasing down purchases of Treasury and ...


Stephen Moore: We need a little more Milton Friedman right about now
Posted: November 19, 2021 at 02:34 AM (Friday)

Not long ago, President Joe Biden made an offhanded comment that "Milton Friedman isn’t running the show anymore." This president has seldom spoken more valid words. And that’s where the trouble has begun. If you were to rate the three most influential economic minds of all time, you’d be hard-pressed to come up with a better trio than Adam ...


Phil Gramm and Mike Solon: Will Joe Manchin Stand His Ground on Inflation?
Posted: November 18, 2021 at 12:05 PM (Thursday)

Federal spending is its biggest driver. He has demanded an honest accounting, due this week. Long before the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation had hit a 30-year high, Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) raised concerns about how President Biden’s Build Back Better bill would affect the economy, the national debt, entitlements and ...