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Jennifer Schulp: The SEC’s Consistent Ambiguity
Posted: September 28, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday)

The agency should formalize rules for crypto and revise onerous climate-risk regulation before causing more business uncertainty. Earlier in September, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman Gary Gensler appeared for the second time before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs to provide the agency's ...


Duncan Weldon: Treacherous path ahead for Bank of England and markets
Posted: September 27, 2022 at 11:15 AM (Tuesday)

Either interest rates will have to rise to levels that will crush demand or sterling risks falling further, adding to inflation. After 12 years of fiscal conservatism being the lodestar of British economic policy, the sudden switch to a tax-cutting, supposedly pro-growth agenda has clearly rattled investors. To say that Friday’s “mini-Budget” ...


Stephen Roach: Core Dangers for the Fed and China
Posted: September 27, 2022 at 09:01 AM (Tuesday)

NEW HAVEN – Just as a fixation on core inflation can mislead central banks, as it has done with the US Federal Reserve, the power of a “core leader” like China’s Xi Jinping is a recipe for misdirected and ultimately unsustainable policy regimes. The very notion of a core adds a false sense of precision when addressing complex problems. It ...


John Barrasso: Biden’s Political Abuse of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Posted: September 27, 2022 at 06:30 AM (Tuesday)

Instead of unleashing more American energy, President Biden uses America’s emergency reserves to solve a short-term political problem. Benjamin Franklin is credited with saying that we will not appreciate water until the well runs dry. The same might be said of our nation's emergency oil stockpile. President Joe Biden has raided 190 ...


Bill Dudley: The Fed Is Underplaying the Pain of Inflation Fighting
Posted: September 27, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Tuesday)

The central bank is still pretending that its policies won’t hurt much. That’s not a good sign. The US Federal Reserve has made its inflation-fighting intentions abundantly clear. Now comes the difficult part: sticking to that commitment as tighter monetary policy restrains the economy and puts millions out of work. Will the Fed stay the course? ...


Review & Outlook: The Cost of Biden’s Student Loan Write-off: $420 Billion
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 06:36 PM (Monday)

Congress’s official budget scorekeeper finally offers an estimate of the cost of forgiveness. Now they tell us. We’re referring to the Congressional Budget Office, which finally rolled in Monday with its cost estimate for President Biden’s unilateral student-loan write-down: $420 billion. The Democrats who run Congress didn’t even ask for ...


Peter Coy: Biden’s Student Loan Plan Has Issues
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 06:30 PM (Monday)

There's a conundrum in President Biden's relief plan for student loan debt. The more merciful the government is to debtors, the worse the incentives it creates. People will be more likely to borrow unwisely if they expect the government to forgive their unpayable loans. This is an old problem for governments, of course, but it's stark in ...


Steven Malanga: Remote Work and the State Tax War
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 04:02 PM (Monday)

New Jersey’s effort to dun New York remote workers highlights a mounting face-off between state governments over telecommuting. The Supreme Court's unwillingness to intervene in a fight among states over taxing income from remote work may spark a jurisdictional revenue war. In August, the Court refused to take up a lawsuit by New Hampshire ...


Sally Pipes: Pay No Attention To Biden's Biotech Bluster
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 10:28 AM (Monday)

Speaking in Boston earlier this month, President Biden insisted that the United States can "end cancer as we know it and even cure cancers once and for all." His "Cancer Moonshot" aims to do just that. Among its many lofty goals, it seeks to halve cancer deaths in the next 25 years. But if the president wants to cure cancer, he and ...


Michael Strain: America’s Education Emergency
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 10:15 AM (Monday)

WASHINGTON, DC – New test scores have confirmed what many had suspected: pandemic-era school closures resulted in a disturbing loss of learning for millions of American schoolchildren. Worse, there is scandalously little political appetite to take the steps needed to help students get back on track. In the fall of 2020, many local and ...


Tyler Cowen: Truss’s Economic Plan Isn’t the Disaster Everyone Says It Is
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 09:10 AM (Monday)

The debate over the UK’s budget proposal could use fewer adjectives and more numbers. I know an unpopular economic policy when I see one. And the consensus among economists about the tax cuts and deregulations announced last week by UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is almost universally negative. Larry Summers noted: "I think Britain will be ...


Bernard Sharfman: On Climate Change, the SEC Swings for the Fences
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 06:30 AM (Monday)

Its proposed climate-change-disclosures rule will likely be vacated by the courts. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was established by an act of Congress in 1934. You'd think that a regulatory agency would take care to remain within the parameters set by the legislative act that established it, and the constitutional limitations ...


Norbert Michel: The Most Recent Inflation Trend Matters The Most
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 06:21 AM (Monday)

On Wednesday, the Fed officially raised its rate target by three quarters of a percentage point, increasing the rate it pays on reserve balances to 3.15 percent (up from 2.4 percent in July). Predictably, most of the news reports sound terribly bleak. One headline proclaimed that the Fed lifted rates "to curb runaway inflation." ...


Allison Schrager: Norman Rockwell's Economy Is Never Coming Back
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Monday)

Lawmakers are too focused on returning to the days when manufacturing ruled while the goal should be reducing the barriers to entrepreneurship. Promising a return to a Norman Rockwell-esque past where everyone had great jobs, financial stability and a shot at the American dream makes for great politics, but terrible economic policies. The ...


Ed Yardeni: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Channels Former-Fed Chair Paul Volcker
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 02:53 AM (Monday)

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated August 30, 2022. It seems that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently read former Fed Chair Paul Volcker's autobiography, Keeping At It (2018). Amazon's summary states: "As chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979-1987), Paul Volcker slayed the inflation dragon that was consuming the ...


Ruchir Sharma: The seven economic wonders of a worried world
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 12:30 AM (Monday)

A few countries stand out as hopeful exceptions to prevailing pessimism. In periods of gloom like this one, when commentators see nothing but faults in most countries, it is worth highlighting the few that defy the prevailing pessimism. Here are seven that stand out in a world tipping towards recession and higher inflation: Vietnam, ...


Mohamed El-Erian: Why Investors Are Facing Even More Market Instability
Posted: September 26, 2022 at 12:00 AM (Monday)

Traders were already dealing with three economic and financial paradigm shifts. Then the Fed and the UK government cast a pall on policy making. Frequent flyers are accustomed to turbulence on some flights. Indeed, many expect it. Despite such anticipation, however, the turbulence can once in a while create significant anxiety among even the ...


Review & Outlook: A Gore-Kerry Political Climate Hit
Posted: September 25, 2022 at 06:40 PM (Sunday)

They want the World Bank to guarantee climate lending losses. When Al Gore, John Kerry and the New York Times gang up on someone, you know a political hit is on. That’s what happened last week to World Bank President David Malpass, for the sin of not turning the international lending institution into an arm of Democratic Party policy on ...


John Tamny: On the Matter of Inflation, We Have a Problem of Definitions
Posted: September 25, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Sunday)

With inflation we seem to have a problem of definitions. More specifically, everyone seems to want to give inflation a definition as opposed to accepting the definition. It's the word equivalent of various writers deciding that "excellent" isn't simply "great," and that going forward what signifies great will now have varying meanings ...


Julian Lee: Oil Markets Are Volatile But They’re Not Broken
Posted: September 25, 2022 at 01:00 AM (Sunday)

Hold onto your hats, 2022’s wild oil ride isn’t done yet. Oil markets are broken. Extreme volatility and a lack of liquidity mean that crude futures have become disconnected from tight physical oil markets. At least that's what some loud voices in the oil world are telling us. But I suspect they may be talking their own books. Complaining ...


Komal Sri-Kumar: Markets: Reality Hurts!
Posted: September 24, 2022 at 06:31 AM (Saturday)

Last week was like few others in intensity, scope or impact. Global equities plunged in anticipation of a recession. The S&P 500 index fell through its June lows as it lost 4.6% during the week. Bond yields surged as investors realized that any improvement in inflation would be, at best, transitory. Yield on 10-year US Treasurys hit the ...


Glenn Harlan Reynolds: Who's our real president? Joe Biden — or the staffers who keep walking back his comments?
Posted: September 23, 2022 at 08:08 PM (Friday)

Is Joe Biden President? That's the question to ask after staffers walked back Biden's latest remarks on Taiwan. During his rather uneven "60 Minutes" interview with Scott Pelley last weekend, Biden firmly and clearly announced that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. This was a dramatic statement, and ...


Review & Outlook: Joe Manchin’s Permitting Bust
Posted: September 23, 2022 at 06:31 PM (Friday)

The Senator gets the Mountain Valley Pipeline, but not much for everyone else. Sen. Joe Manchin finally released the legislative text of his proposed permitting reforms this week, and what a disappointment. His take-it-or-leave-it proposal includes some marginal improvements that will benefit renewables but it creates new regulatory risks ...


Larry Kudlow: Boosting Supply-Side Economics on Both Sides of the Pond
Posted: September 23, 2022 at 05:51 PM (Friday)

It's good to see that the two great English-speaking nations are moving their cavalries in the same direction. So, the U.S. midterm elections cavalry arrived early in London. What do I mean by that? Well, the new British prime minister has laid out a terrific supply-side economic growth plan that looks a lot like the basic thrust of ...


William Dunkelberg: The Economic Outlook For Federal Reserve Policy
Posted: September 23, 2022 at 04:32 PM (Friday)

The Federal Reserve is in the spotlight again this week with another interest rate hike to try and squash the inflation beast. Prices are rising just over 8% year-over-year, while wages are rising at a 5% annual rate, a losing proposition for workers and consumers. The Fed has been raising interest rates this year to slow spending. These ...


Paul Kupiec and Alex Pollock: The government is not only spending trillions — it’s losing trillions
Posted: September 23, 2022 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Lately, no matter if the federal government is spending taxpayer dollars or losing them, it doesn't mess around with small change. The government allocated $4.6 trillion just in COVID relief spending, tens of billions of which have been siphoned off by fraud. And when it comes to losing taxpayers' hard-earned dollars, we've calculated that ...


Alan Blinder: The Fed’s Surprising Record With 'Soft Landings’ From Inflation
Posted: September 23, 2022 at 10:59 AM (Friday)

History shows that, with skillful decisions and some good luck, central bankers can defeat inflation without causing a recession. This week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point for the third time in six months, in an effort to combat inflation. The move made investors worry more about a recession, even though ...


Harold James: Geopolitical Davids and Goliaths
Posted: September 23, 2022 at 08:43 AM (Friday)

PRINCETON – The world's largest and most well-established powers are all stuck in traps created by their own historical obsessions – be it memories of past humiliation, claims to greatness, or both. Meanwhile, some smaller countries are looking increasingly happy, resilient, and stable by comparison. New Yorkers have come to expect traffic ...


Stephen Moore: America needs political prediction markets
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 11:00 PM (Thursday)

Just in time for the heat of the election season, a federal agency called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has announced it will no longer allow betting on political and election outcomes. These online wagering platforms, most notably PredictIt, allow betting on all sorts of political outcomes: the odds that Republicans win the Senate ...


Paul Krugman: War, Inflation and Squandered Credibility
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 07:30 PM (Thursday)

What does Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, understand that Vladimir Putin doesn't? OK, I know that may sound like a trick question, or a desperate effort to offer a counterintuitive take on recent events. We may say that the Fed has gone to war against inflation, but that's just a metaphor. Russia's war on Ukraine, unfortunately, ...


Review & Outlook: The Fed, the Dollar, the Yen and You
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 06:46 PM (Thursday)

Currency gyrations are becoming too wide for central bankers to ignore. There are indignities not even the much-battered Japanese yen can bear, and falling past ¥145 to the dollar turns out to be one of them. Tokyo intervened in the foreign-exchange market Thursday for the first time in 24 years to try to manage the fallout from Western ...


Alexander Zemek: Biden’s America Is Running on Empty
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 06:36 PM (Thursday)

U.S. petroleum reserves haven’t been this low since 1984. Less than two years into his presidency, President Biden has released more oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve than all previous presidents combined. To date, Mr. Biden has allowed over 200 million barrels to be withdrawn—more than 30% of the total reserve he ...


Larry Kudlow: Words From the Mouths of the Far-Left Progressives
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 06:14 PM (Thursday)

Their utterly irresponsible and unserious statements show these people are not rooting for America, but they are the ones who are running the Democratic Party right now. Let's talk about some of the far-left progressives who inhabit Congress and, most regrettably for the country, constitute a long tail that is wagging the entire Democratic ...


Jeanna Smialek: Central Banks Accept Pain Now, Fearing Worse Later
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 05:19 PM (Thursday)

Federal Reserve officials and their counterparts around the world are trying to defeat inflation by rapidly raising interest rates. They know it will come at a cost. A day after the Federal Reserve lifted interest rates sharply and signaled more to come, central banks across Asia and Europe followed suit on Thursday, waging their own campaigns ...


Mark Zandi: What FedEx’s slump shows us about the threat of recession
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 09:00 AM (Thursday)

Inflation is painfully high, central banks are aggressively raising interest rates, and recession risks are uncomfortably high, everywhere. Hand-wringing over an impending recession is loud. The latest warning was sounded by the CEO of FedEx, Raj Subramaniam, who said Sept. 15 that the company's package deliveries were slumping across the ...


Arthur Brooks: Don’t Objectify Yourself
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Thursday)

Thinking of yourself as an observer is better for your happiness than obsessing over being observed. One night several years ago, after filling up my car at a gas station and pulling away, I noticed a strange sound behind me in traffic–sort of a metallic clanking noise. It sounded to me like someone was dragging a muffler or bumper, so I ...


Greg Ip: Markets Brace for Hard Landing as Fed Delivers Sobering Message
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 05:30 AM (Thursday)

Wall Street sees inflation-taming efforts as likely to result in a recession. This time, markets understood quite clearly what the Federal Reserve meant: Inflation is too high and it will likely take a recession to get it down.There is really no other way to interpret the economic and interest-rate projections Fed officials released Wednesday, ...


Richard Cookson: Coordinated Dollar Intervention Is a Long Shot
Posted: September 22, 2022 at 05:00 AM (Thursday)

There are three main reasons top central banks are unlikely to team up to arrest the US currency’s strength as they did with the Plaza Accord in in 1985. The US dollar has surged almost 14% from its low last year in trade-weighted terms. This has led to a huge terms of trade shock (the price of exports compared with the price of imports) ...


Jeanna Smialek: The Fed Intensifies Its Battle Against Inflation
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 07:30 PM (Wednesday)

Federal Reserve officials made another large rate increase and signaled more to come, pledging to quash inflation despite expected pain. Federal Reserve officials, struggling to contain the most rapid inflation in 40 years, delivered a third big rate increase on Wednesday and projected a more aggressive path ahead for monetary policy, one ...


Burton Malkiel: Don’t Give Up on the Stock Market
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 06:19 PM (Wednesday)

Though uncertainty lies ahead, the right equities investment strategy can yield portfolio stability. Equity investors have a mounting list of worries. Don’t be fooled by falling oil prices; inflation has proved stubbornly sticky. Healthcare and shelter costs are rising, and core inflation (excluding food and energy) remains high. It appears ...


Desmond Lachman: The Federal Reserve is the rest of the world’s problem
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 04:30 PM (Wednesday)

In 1971, at the time when the United States delinked the dollar from gold, Treasury Secretary John Connally famously told a group of European finance ministers that the dollar was "our currency but your problem." Today, he might have said something similar about the Federal Reserve's recent shift to a hawkish monetary policy stance. The ...


Dominic Pino: The Fed Sees More Trouble Ahead
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 04:07 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points today. It's the third consecutive 75-point increase. The FOMC's statement on its decision says: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. ...


Jed Graham: Federal Reserve Expects 4.6% Rate Peak
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 04:01 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve hiked its key interest rate 75 basis points on Wednesday and signaled much more to come. Policymakers' quarterly projections show the federal funds rate heading as high as 4.6% next year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained volatile, swinging lower then higher then lower again after the Fed meeting policy statement. ...


Adam Millsap: Permitting Reform Needed At Every Level Of Government
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 02:02 PM (Wednesday)

It is way too difficult to build things in America, and politicians from both parties know it. In return for Senator Joe Manchin's (WV) support of the poorly named Inflation Reduction Act, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) promised Manchin a vote on a federal permitting reform bill by the end of September. Meanwhile, Manchin's ...


Jay Bhattacharya and Mikko Packalen: The Economists Self-Censored and Inflation Is a Result
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 01:12 PM (Wednesday)

Consumer inflation rate in the US has remained above 4% since April 2021, 5% since June 2021, and 8% since March 2022. This last month's inflation report came in at 8.4%, above analysts' forecasts, disappointing hopes that the inflation rate might start to subside. A significant part of the current inflation is a rather obvious result of ...


Mohamed El-Erian: Many have lost faith in the Fed. Will it be able to win our trust again?
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

This week, it will become more apparent to economists and policymakers across the globe that the Federal Reserve is in a Catch-22 situation of its own making. Forced by worries about high and persistent inflation, the Fed will likely go down in history as having raised interest rates by the same large amount in three consecutive policy ...


Greg Ip: Workers’ Changing Attitudes Tighten Labor Market
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 09:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pandemic has altered what job conditions, hours, and pay workers are willing to accept. The phrase “labor market” doesn’t do justice to the complex relationship between workers and their jobs. Unlike ordinary goods and services, such as slabs of steel or cups of coffee, workers care about how they’re treated, and have other things to do with ...


Peter Morici: The U.S. must take the lead on globalization if it hopes to compete with China
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday)

America should re-embrace free trade and free markets to maintain a vibrant economy. Global commerce is being rearranged by Western sanctions on Russia, COVID inspired hardening of supply chains and Western apprehensions about China, but none of this spells the end of globalization. It merely heightens the competition between the United States ...


Jeanna Smialek: What’s Next for Profits? Cars Shed Light on a Key Inflation Question.
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 05:00 AM (Wednesday)

How easily companies give up swollen profits could determine how easily the Federal Reserve can cool inflation. Dealerships offer clues. In a recent speech pointedly titled "Bringing Inflation Down," Lael Brainard, the Federal Reserve's vice chair, zoomed in on the automobile market as a real-world example of a major uncertainty looming over ...


Jeffrey Frankel: In the Dollar We Trust
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 04:35 AM (Wednesday)

CAMBRIDGE – Surging inflation and an ongoing economic slowdown should have hurt demand for the US dollar, and yet the greenback is at a 20-year high. The US economy’s relative strength and the Fed’s rapid monetary tightening will likely keep the dollar strong for some time. Despite rampant inflation and slowing growth, the US dollar keeps ...