It’s going to take many years of digging to get GDP back to its pre-pandemic level. The hits just keep on coming. First came the stunning 2.5 million increase in non-arm payrolls for May, a 10 million forecast miss by economists looking for a huge decline. May’s record increase followed April’s record decline of 20.7 million jobs. Then came ...

The Fed shouldn’t give forward guidance because it doesn’t know when a change in policy will be needed. Some commentators are pressing the Federal Reserve for more specific guidance — forward guidance, that is — at the conclusion of the two-day meeting on Wednesday. It’s not clear why more hand-holding is needed or warranted — or even advisable. ...

Protests could curtail spending, slowing the fragile recovery. Just as states across the country were embarking on a phased-in reopening of their economies, along came sometimes violent protests to upend the hoped-for gradual return to normalcy. The U.S. economy doesn’t need another superlative in its cap. It already has several: the ...

It may sound counterintuitive, but some of our strongest companies were forged during hard times. It may seem counterintuitive, but downturns and bear markets present an opportunity for entrepreneurs to start a new business. Why? Because the “uncertainty” that traditional businesses, not to mention financial markets, reputedly hate, isn’t an ...

Even for cautious business-cycle historians, there’s no doubt that March was the end of the longest-ever expansion. Assuming recently released economic data and projections for the U.S. economy going forward are reasonably accurate, it seems likely that March 2020 will mark the official onset of recession following the longest expansion on ...

Consumer prices have increased just 0.3% in the past year. The collapse in demand means lower prices for many items. Even as the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and Great Shutdown manifests itself in the economic data, some economists are already warning that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive money-printing operation is laying the ...

The economy can’t come back until consumers feel safe. The Great Shutdown, which aptly describes the motivating force behind the current recession, ushered in what is probably the first downturn in history to be led by the services sector of the economy. That in itself, if not the unique nature of the recession — workers ordered to stay ...

An America that isolates itself from the world would be a poorer America. The coronavirus pandemic could not have happened at a worse time, coinciding as it did with the rise of populism and anti-globalization sentiment. A highly contagious virus plays right into the hands of a U.S. president who is exploiting the public’s fears to promote ...

The scars from shutting down the economy are apt to linger. Recessions characterized by a sharp deceleration in economic growth are often followed by a sharp acceleration. Hence, the origin of the nomenclature a “V-shaped recovery.” Given the sudden, severe and exogenous nature of the current downturn, the onset of which will likely be dated ...

From 3 million layoffs to record moves in the stock market, the last few weeks truly have been unprecedented, as President Trump always claims. Whether it’s the U.S. economy or the stock market or any of his administration’s initiatives, President Donald Trump is quick to assert, ad nauseum, that “there’s never been anything like it before.” ...

Please stay away! Martha’s Vineyard urges summer residents to stay home for now. That is the message contained in a joint statement released by Martha’s Vineyard Hospital and Nantucket Cottage Hospital posted by the Steamship Authority, which runs ferry service to and from the two islands situated off the coast of Cape Cod, Mass. The ...

Businesses and workers need cash to pay their bills until the economy can revive. The Trump administration has asked Congress for an additional $1 trillion in aid for American households and businesses on the heels of two fiscal stimulus measures already enacted. But to think of these efforts, including free coronavirus testing, paid sick ...

Traditional stimulus won’t work when consumers don’t want to go out and spend. Twelve days that shook the world and drove the Federal Reserve to decisive action. Alas, traditional monetary-policy medicine may not be up to the task of addressing a pandemic that has disrupted financial markets and shut down large swaths of the economy. After ...

Redistributing wealth doesn’t help the economy get bigger. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders of Vermont is forever railing against “millionaires and billionaires.” “I don’t think that billionaires should exist,” Sanders said when he unveiled his wealth-tax proposal in September. Just think of all those n’er-do-well rich folks ...

Could 0% interest rates be just around the corner? Two hours after the Group of Seven finance ministers and central bank governors issued a joint statement declaring their readiness to take action to support the economy in the face of risks from the coronavirus, the Federal Reserve pulled the trigger, lowering its benchmark rate by 50 ...

Rate cuts are effective against weak demand — not shocks to global supply. Financial markets have stepped up their expectations for interest rate cuts in recent days as fears of a global pandemic finally rocked the heretofore ebullient U.S. stock market. Federal funds futures are putting the odds of at least one 25-basis-point rate cut by June ...

Markets have been too optimistic about how much COVID-19 will hurt U.S. companies and the economy. On Monday, Apple became one of the first U.S. companies to warn that it would miss its current-quarter revenue target as a result of the coronavirus, which has constrained iPhone production and curtailed demand for its products in China. Until ...

Congress finally has a bipartisan group working on maximizing start-ups. There was a lot of eye-rolling when President Donald Trump released his 2021 budget on Monday with its predictions for 3% growth for the foreseeable future. If only that were possible. An economy’s growth potential is circumscribed by the growth in the labor force and ...

A market for risky assets now acts more like a safe haven, knowing the Fed has its back. It was only last week that China’s rapidly spreading coronavirus was sending tremors through world financial markets. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 603 points, or 2.1%, its biggest one-day loss since August. China’s stock ...

The yield curve is about to invert again, and the Fed is fine with that. U.S. Treasury note and bond yields have been falling for over a month to levels last seen in October. On the surface, it would appear that external events may have been the catalyst for the rush into super-safe Treasurys, sending the yield curve toward inversion ...

The Democratic presidential candidates pose more of a threat to the powerful and wealthy than Trump does. Armed with two newly signed trade deals, U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Davos and was greeted, if not exactly as a hero then at least not as the pariah he was in 2018. Some have even gone so far as to suggest that Trump may be the ...

Biggest risk to the expansion would be a financial crisis fueled by animal spirits and excessive credit. The longest economic expansion on record. A 10th year of solid, if not spectacular, job growth. An unemployment rate at half-century lows. No sign of wage or price pressures. All of which tempts one to ask: Is the business cycle dead? ...

The economy is in a good place, but risks abound, from a stock market reversal to geopolitical issues. The U.S. economy enters 2020 with a head of steam. OK, if not an all-powerful thrust, then enough to keep it humming at a 2% real rate of growth, which is estimated to be the economy’s potential. Recession fears, triggered by the ...

Ultra-low interest rates in the developed world play a bigger role than the Fed’s Treasury bill purchases. In October, when the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin buying Treasury bills to increase the size of its balance sheet, the burning question was: Is the Fed restarting quantitative easing? The Fed insists that the current ...

What makes Fed policy makers so sure that they could bring inflation rates back down again? The Federal Reserve has been trying, without much success, to raise the inflation rate to its 2% target ever since the central bank designated an explicit target in 2012. Both actual inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures ...

Bond and stock investors are focused on the economy, trade and the Fed. Do stock and bond markets care about impeachment? The short answer is “no.” The stock market is preoccupied with the status of trade negotiations, at least as portrayed by the media, between the U.S. and China over a phase-one deal that would provide some tax relief to ...

Recession risk abates, but there are plenty of reasons to be cautious. The U.S. stock market is near all-time highs, the unemployment rate is near 50-year lows, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 75 basis points in a three-month time period, and the yield curve has un-inverted. So all’s right with the world, or at least the U.S., ...

U.S. and China remain far apart on the biggest issues. Anyone who follows the stock market, or at least the commentary on the stock market, knows that “trade optimism” has been a key factor underpinning the recent sprint to new highs for all the major U.S. equity indexes. Any intimation that even a limited phase-one trade deal between the U.S. ...

Keeping its options open is better than closing the door on more easing. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5%-1.75%, the third such cut in three months. The fed funds futures market puts the probability at 94%. That same financial futures market is ...

Former front-runner Joe Biden gets a pass on his son’s Ukraine connection. If you had missed Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s ascent to front-runner status in the Democratic presidential polls, it was everywhere apparent at Tuesday night’s debate, where her rivals came after her with guns a-blazing. In previous debates, Warren had dodged ...

How can an economy be ‘good’ if it needs lots of help to keep it stable? President Donald Trump says he’s presiding over “the greatest economy in the history of the U.S.” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the economy is “in a good place.” Who’s right? Neither, actually, although Trump’s assessment — sometimes supported by a ...

The economic data have improved, but plenty of risks remain. A funny thing happened on the way to the recession, which had been lightly penciled-in for sometime next year: the U.S. economic data showed a marked improvement. From housing starts and home sales to manufacturing production and jobless claims, the economic news last week was ...

If you want to know what Fed policy will be, watch global growth, the trade wars, and inflation. Alan Greenspan gave us his “risk management” approach to monetary policy. Jerome Powell has outlined the risks that need to be managed. In so doing, the current Federal Reserve chairman is offering both insights into the central bank’s ...

Twitter affects markets, Facebook affects elections, and it all affects the way we interact. Anyone who keeps one eye on the stock market and the other on President Donald Trump’s feed can tell you that the two have become highly correlated. And in this case, correlation implies causation. All it takes is a Trump tweet hinting at imminent ...

Tariffs and trade wars are beginning to erode consumer confidence. The consumer literally carried the U.S. economy in the second quarter of 2019. While business and residential investment, net exports and inventories all declined, real personal consumption expenditures rose at a 4.7% annual rate, the largest increase in 4 1/2 years, ...

Why tit-for-tat monetary policy is a bad idea. There are times when the Federal Reserve has been accused of acting politically. For example, in 2016 Donald Trump chastised Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen for holding interest rates low to help President Barack Obama. Never, as far as I can tell, has a policy maker, current or former, encouraged ...

The markets convey vital information to guide the Fed. This week’s main event takes place on Friday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell kicks off the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Financial markets will be listening closely for hints about the near-term direction of monetary policy. How will ...

The real threat of a recession comes from the Fed’s failure to respond. The escalation in the U.S.-China trade war earlier this month raised the decibel level on recession talk from a whisper to a quiet conversation, if not elevating it to an outright forecast just yet. Would a full-blown trade war with China be enough to tip the U.S. ...

Trump wants lower interest rates. Period. To the extent that Donald Trump has had any kind of “trade strategy,” it was all about using tariffs to make imports more expensive and promote “Made in America, “Buy America.” Last week, the president hinted that there may be a new method to his madness. On Thursday, one day after the Federal ...

Powell’s Fed likely to be cautious and vague in signaling future moves. Unless you have been summering on the International Space Station, you should have heard that the Federal Reserve is planning to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Financial futures markets have been telegraphing ...

Slump in factory sector points to risks to larger economy. Concerns about slowing economic growth in recent months have been centered on the manufacturing sector, a message telegraphed by both survey and hard data. For example, manufacturing output contracted in both the first and second quarters of this year, according to the Federal ...

Right now, the inverted yield curve points to an increased risk of recession, while various financial conditions indexes say conditions are easy. The Fed risks misinterpreting financial conditions from long rates. Financial conditions are all the rage among central bankers. And for good reason. Monetary policy involves setting a short-term ...

Peak in nonfarm payrolls usually coincides with peak in business cycle. That sound you heard on Friday was either a collective sigh of relief or the air leaking out of the stock market on news that the U.S. economy created 224,000 new jobs in June, part of a solid reading on the employment situation in the United States. The urgency for ...

Expensive progressive policies could drive away moderate voters. While the first Democratic presidential debates were clearly not scheduled to coincide with the release of the Congressional Budget Office’s 2019 long-term budget outlook, their contemporaneous timing was instructive on many levels. At a time when the Democratic Party is ...

GDP will be weak for years, absent a productivity miracle or comprehensive immigration reform. Ten years ago at their annual forum, executives at Pacific Management Investment Co. coined the phrase the “new normal” to describe what they expected to be a period of below-average growth following the Great Recession and financial crisis. ...

Job growth has been great, but most other metrics are falling short. The “best economy” in the history of the U.S. is about to reach a milestone next month when it becomes the longest expansion on record. The first superlative is, of course, a mere platitude uttered by President Donald Trump. The latter is a statistically significant data ...

The Fed should focus on doing the right thing at the right time, even if it means forgoing advance preparation. Five months ago, the Federal Reserve invoked “patience” to talk the stock market off the ledge. In the intervening months, that patience has been tested by a downshift in economic growth, both here and abroad; chronic, ...

Federal Reserve policy makers are searching for new tools in a crisis, but believing that a flat yield curve can stimulate the economy makes no sense. The yield curve, or the spread between the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, or a proxy such as the 3-month Treasury bill, and a market-determined long-term rate, is a reliable leading indicator of ...

Central bank still hasn’t figured out how to hit its inflation target. After a series of “Fed Listens” events, the central bank’s year-long, comprehensive review of monetary policy strategy, tools and communication will culminate next week with a research conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Presentations by academic experts ...

The source of low inflation? The Fed should look in the mirror. “Of course, it is not entirely clear how to move underlying trend inflation smoothly to our target on a sustained basis in the presence of a very flat Phillips curve.” — Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, May 16, 2019 To think that central bankers have no idea how to create inflation ...

The growth of credit in the United States has been fueled by low interest rates.Ignoring the credit cycle puts the business cycle at risk. The raw material is money. Sometimes it chases goods and services. At other times, it chases assets. The former eventually leads to higher inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy. The latter is a case ...

Tax cut was supposed to supercharge the supply side of the economy — what happened? First-quarter economic growth exceeded even the most optimistic expectations, expanding at a 3.2% annualized rate. The Trump administration was quick to take credit for the continued strength in the U.S. economy. At a rally in Green Bay, Wis., Saturday ...

It looks like the Fed may have achieved the rare feat of backing off in time to avert a recession. As the Bureau of Economic Analysis prepares to release its first estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product on Friday, economists are expecting a 2.2% increase compared with 2.2% in the fourth quarter, according to Bloomberg’s ...

It’s time to put money back into the equation of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has consistently undershot its 2% inflation target ever since it adopted an explicit target in 2012. Policy makers, desperate to find a culprit outside of themselves, have settled on the public’s subdued inflation expectations as the likely suspect. In order ...

The challenges to unrestrained federal spending: economic, legal, political and practical. Perhaps you’ve heard or read something recently about Modern Monetary Theory. You’d have to be living on the Space Station not to have come in contact with the “theory,” as it were, that is sweeping the nation, aided and abetted by progressive members ...

The yield curve has a much better record of forecasting recessions. The stock market is positively giddy about the prospects for the U.S. economy and corporate earnings. The bond market is telegraphing gloom and doom. Who’s right? Stocks logged their best quarterly performance in nearly a decade in the first quarter of 2019. This comes in the ...

If the yield curve stays inverted, the Fed must cut rates quickly. When the Federal Reserve backed off its December projection for additional rate increases in 2019 and opted instead for patience, there was a collective sigh of relief from financial markets. Now that patience is being tested. Not in the way the Fed originally intended, which ...

When an economic expansion dies, it’s always the Fed that murders it. The yield curve is the best way to know if a recession is imminent. “Expansions don’t die of old age. I like to say they get murdered instead.” — Ben Bernanke, Jan. 4, 2019 Economist Austan Goolsbee sees things differently. In a March 16 Economic View column for the New ...

The benefits of being connected 24/7 may not be as great as you imagine. What if our smartphones are making us stupid? We are so used to thinking of technology as an unmitigated good, not to mention a key driver of productivity growth, that any potential deleterious effects have been largely ignored. No one can deny the ways in which ...

Trump’s plan to punish China boomerangs, putting America last. President Donald Trump’s trade war provided the kind of real-world experiment that practitioners of the dismal science so desperately crave, but the results weren’t all that different from what their econometric models predict. In a new paper, “The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on ...

Business economists predict the Fed will raise rates until it bites. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told senators on Tuesday that the Fed won’t strangle the economy with higher interest rates, but some economists clearly don’t believe him. They seem to think the Fed will quickly run out of “patience” and throw the economy into ...

It has become fashionable in recent months for economists to argue that the nation’s growing public debt is not a problem but something to be, if not exactly embraced, then at least not avoided. Harvard University economists Lawrence Summers and Jason Furman penned a recent article in “Foreign Affairs,” titled “Who’s Afraid of Budget ...

Fed’s response to further yield curve flattening holds the key. Could this be it? After multiple tries and a long list of failures, could the elusive soft-landing finally become more than a single data point in economic history, a result of human intuition and flexibility rather than adherence to mathematical formulas and econometric models? ...

Jerome Powell’s legacy could very well be ‘live by the word, die by the word’. The Federal Reserve’s apparent about-face on the outlook for interest rates has put the central bank in an awkward position of having to defend against accusations of caving to political or financial market pressure. First, a relevant timeline: • Oct. 3: Fed ...

CBO says three-week shutdown cost at least $3 billion the economy will never get back. Shutdowns cost money. That’s the assessment of the Congressional Budget Office, the White House Office of Management and Budget, and private-sector economists who have analyzed the data from various government shutdowns over the years. Some of the costs ...

There are lots of legitimate reasons to pause, so why did Powell give in to the market’s tantrum? It is hard to recall a time when the Federal Reserve has made as dramatic an about-face in how it conveys its outlook and yes, its forward guidance to financial markets absent a significant deterioration in economic fundamentals as it has in the ...

Investors have gotten used to the risk on, risk off trade, Bianco says. Over the years, the bond market has shown itself to be a fickle suitor, pursuing relationships with an array of assets and asset classes. Some of those relationships have proven to be meaningful and long-lasting (with the U.S. dollar and industrial commodities, for ...

“Expansions don’t die of old age. They get murdered.” — Ben Bernanke The expansion should continue for a while, if the Federal Reserve doesn’t kill it. All it took was some wild swings and big losses in U.S. stock prices for the “R” word — recession — to start tripping off people’s tongues. And not just run-of-the-mill observers. Almost ...