'Carpe Diem, Quam Minimum Credula Postero'

'Seize the day, Trusting as little as possible in the future'


Recent Stories
Jeanna Smialek: Fed’s Powell Signals December Slowdown in Rate Increases

11/30/22 02:57PM - The Federal Reserve chair said the central bank will keep lifting rates to control price increases, and played down a recent cooling in inflation. Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said the central bank could slow its interest …more…

Nick Timiraos: Jerome Powell Signals Fed Prepared to Slow Rate-Rise Pace in December

11/30/22 01:37PM - Fed chair says a labor-market slowdown will be needed to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank is on track to raise interest rates by a half percentage point at its …more…

Robert Hughes: Third Quarter GDP Revised Higher but Pockets of Weakness Persist

11/30/22 12:59PM - Real gross domestic product rose at a revised 2.9 percent annualized rate in the third quarter versus a 0.6 percent rate of decline in the second quarter and a -1.6 pace in the first quarter (see first chart). Over the past four quarters, real …more…

Greg Ip: Chinese Authoritarianism Stumbles on Covid; American Democracy Shakes It Off

11/30/22 10:00AM - Insulated from political pressure and public opinion, Chinese President Xi Jinping stuck with ‘zero Covid’ for too long. When Covid-19 first erupted in 2020, the U.S. struggled to balance the trade-off between lives and livelihoods. Infections …more…

Narayana Kocherlakota: Stagflation Is Just What the Economy Needs

11/30/22 07:00AM - The Federal Reserve should be — and appears to be — aiming for a period of elevated unemployment and inflation. The US Federal Reserve's pitched battle with rising prices has given rise to widespread concerns about a possible return of stagflation …more…

Peter Morici: The neutral interest rate is 6%—much higher than Fed policy makers admit

11/30/22 06:00AM - Inflation will remain high for a long time unless a less-ideological, pro-growth government is elected. The Federal Reserve quickly raising interest rates has disrupted stock and bond markets and multiplying default risks for corporate …more…

Economic Results
Beige Book: Economic Activity was about flat or up slightly

11/30/22 02:00PM - Economic activity was about flat or up slightly since the previous report, down from the modest average pace of growth in the prior Beige Book period. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains in activity, and the rest experienced either …more…

Job Openings edged down to 10.3 million in October 2022

11/30/22 10:00AM - The number of job openings edged down to 10.3 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.0 million and 5.7 …more…

Pending Home Sales down 4.6% in October 2022

11/30/22 10:00AM - Pending home sales slid for the fifth consecutive month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three of four U.S. regions recorded month-over-month decreases, and all four regions recorded year-over-year declines …more…

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index tumbled to 37.2 in November 2022

11/30/22 09:45AM - The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, tumbled a further eight points to 37.2 in November, contracting for a third consecutive month. Excluding the 2020 pandemic shock, this was the lowest reading since the 2008/09 Global …more…

3Q2022 GDP preliminary estimate increased 2.9%

11/30/22 08:30AM - Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased …more…

ADP National Employment Report Increased by 127,000 jobs in November 2022

11/30/22 08:15AM - Private sector employment increased by 127,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 7.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the …more…

Purchase Apps Down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

11/30/22 07:00AM - Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 25, 2022. This week’s results include an …more…